The Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the industry body of private sector sugar producers, has reduced the estimate for country’s gross sugar production to 32.4 million tonnes, lower than its previous forecast of 34.35 mt and also the government’s estimate of 33 mt. With a narrow surplus over demand and previous year’s low carry over stock, India may have to tread cautiously to avert any price hike during festival season in October.
Releasing its third advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025–26 sugar season (October–September), ISMA said that a comprehensive review was conducted by its Executive Committee on Wednesday. In the review, the production outlook has been revised to — gross production at 32.4 mt, diversion for ethanol at 3.1 mt and net sugar production at 29.29 mt.
It also said that the net sugar production is 12 per cent higher than last year’s 26.12 mt while the sugar diversion estimate is based on state-wise ethanol supply allocations and the expected cane crushing during the balance season.
businessline was the first to report about a possible decline in sugar production after farmers in Uttar Pradesh, the largest grower of sugarcane, had reported a decline in the crop yield.
As the government has allowed export of 2 mt of sugar, ISMA has now predicted 0.7 mt could be shipped this season, allowing the country to have 5.3 mt carry forward sugar for 2026-27 season.
However, industry experts said that if there is a sudden demand for Indian sugar, which is likely, the government may have to step in to restrict as with the current production number, if sugar goes out for ethanol and export as per permission, there could be net availability of 31.8 mt. Even if the sugar consumption is assumed at conservative 28 mt level, the closing stock on September 30 could come down to as low as 3.8 mt, which is barely adequate to meet the first two months of demand, an industry expert said.
ISMA procured high-resolution satellite imagery in early February to assess the sugarcane crop status across the country, it said in a statement. The satellite images provided a clear and reliable estimate of the area already harvested, the balance cane area yet to be harvested and regional variations in crop progress.
“These findings were corroborated with extensive field visits, historical production trends, prevailing weather conditions, current yield and sugar recovery data, and projected performance during the remaining period of the crushing season,” it said.
Commenting on the downward revision, it said that sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh is lower than earlier projections. This is primarily attributable to the ongoing varietal replacement programme in the state, which has temporarily impacted productivity levels. However, sugar recovery in the state has been reported higher than last season, ISMA said.
Further, it said that yields per unit area are lower than initially expected despite reasonable sugar recovery levels in major sugarcane-growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka. This shortfall in yield has been linked to the early onset of flowering in sugarcane, which began across many cane-growing regions from January onwards rather than being confined to only traditional river belts.
Early flowering — often triggered by abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth phases — accelerates cane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalks. Additionally, the higher crush rate this year shortened the effective harvesting window, reducing field retention time and limiting late-stage biomass accumulation.
Published on February 25, 2026