Gaurav J Dua, ED & CIO, Standard Chartered Securities
Standard Chartered Securities believes consumption as a theme will be the key driver to boost the economy in the coming days with the government’s focus on puting more money in the hands of consumers.
The RBI has already cut repo rates by 100 basis points, the GST overhaul will reduce the burden on consumers and the finance ministry has already provided tax relief. In addition, the Government has announced the Eighth Pay Commission, which will benefit 30-40 million State and Central government employees.
Consumption Boost
Gaurav J Dua, ED & CIO, Standard Chartered Securities, said the rub-off effect of monetary and fiscal policy measures are already playing out with the rising volume growth in the FMCG and QSR sectors.
The demand for premium products across sectors, including automobiles, is visible and this is expected to strengthen further as the per capita income rises to $4,000 by 2030, he said.
The measures taken by the government and RBI together will leave about ₹6 lakh crore in the hands of consumers and provide a significant boost to the economy, he added.
Balanced strategy
Despite the 25-30 per cent decline in small-cap indices, there are enough opportunities in this space as some stocks have started to look good now.
“We normally limit our investment horizon to Nifty-500 stocks, because that is the kind of clientele that we have, who want to have a balanced approach and they’re happy with 2-5 per cent alpha over Nifty,” he said.
In fact, he said that if you look at last decade from 2016 to 2025, each year witnessed disruptions — from demonetisation, GST roll-out, bank NPA crisis, IL&FS fiasco and pandemic — yet the Nifty delivered a 13 per cent CAGR growth, translating into nearly 3.5 times growth over the decade. Similarly, a balanced portfolio with 30-35 per cent in mid- and small-caps would have expanded investment by about 5.5 times.
“We have the top 100-150 stocks forming about 60 per cent of the portfolio, with the rest in mid- and small-caps. I think that gives you the right balanced approach,” he said.
IT evolution
On the recent crash in the IT sector, Dua said the IT industry had transformed itself multiple times, from enterprise software package implementation to quality assurance to infrastructure management, cloud computing and digital transformation.
Companies in software services will be forced to fine-tune their business models and there will be winners and losers in this AI-driven transition phase.
Standard Chartered Securities has been advising its clients to hold back IT stocks and not exit in panic. He noted that the oversold position currently was worse than even during the global financial crisis. He believes there will be exit opportunities down the line and there will also be stocks that will gain from the transition, he added.
Published on February 26, 2026