India’s key spice markets are entering a mixed cycle in 2025-26, with chilli production expected to decline sharply, turmeric output rebounding after last year’s price spike, and ginger navigating export volatility amid China’s expanding dominance. Crop intelligence presented at the International Spice Conference (ISC 2026) indicates a year of supply recalibration and price sensitivity across all three commodities.
India, the world’s largest chilli producer at roughly 2 million tonnes annually, is facing at a 35–40 per cent production decline this season due to reduced acreage and weather variability across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka. Sowing was extended into October-November, and harvests are progressing with lower-than-expected arrivals, tightening spot availability.
Though carry-forward stocks are estimated to be 8–10 per cent higher year-on-year, trade estimates suggest effective supply could still be lower by nearly 30 per cent due to acreage cuts. After a weak phase earlier in 2025 on account of high inventories, chilli prices have firmed up since January as arrivals disappointed. Export demand remains steady, with China emerging as a key buyer in recent seasons.
Turmeric markets, which saw a sharp rally in 2024-25 following a smaller 2023 crop and depleted stocks, are now turning supply-positive. India, which controls nearly 80 per cent of global turmeric output, is expected to see a 15 per cent rise in 2026 production, driven by a 20 per cent expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra.
However, excess rainfall has trimmed yields by around 5 per cent and raised concerns in some regions. Prices have corrected about 16 per cent since mid-2024 as output improved and expectations of a larger crop built into the market. Even so, stock levels remain relatively tight after exports rose 11 per cent last year while imports fell sharply. Traders say meaningful inventory rebuilding will be key to reducing speculative volatility in the coming cycle.
India remains the world’s second-largest ginger producer at around 2 million tonnes, but output has fallen nearly 12 per cent this season due to lower acreage. Nearly 90 per cent of production is consumed domestically, limiting export exposure but also constraining stock flexibility.
Exports remain volatile, heavily dependent on Bangladesh, which accounts for roughly 80 per cent of shipments. Dry ginger exports surged in 2025, tightening domestic stocks even as production recovered. However, India’s pricing power is increasingly influenced by China, which now produces close to 6 million tonnes and dominates global fresh exports. As China expands supply and infrastructure, Indian ginger prices remain sensitive to external release cycles, while compliance challenges continue to restrict access to premium Western markets, the report said.
Published on February 26, 2026