Due to the US-Israel’s joint attack against Iran and its retaliation, sugar exports to India’s main market in the Gulf may be substantially low and help improve domestic availability.
| Photo Credit:
REUTERS/AMIT DAVE
If the notional stock of sugar kept by mills and as informed to the government is correct, there may be trouble for India to manage supplies this year. This is because production is projected to drop from initial estimates, leaving little quantity to meet demand for the first two months of next season. However, due to the US-Israel’s joint attack against Iran and its retaliation, sugar exports to India’s main market in the Gulf may be substantially low and help improve domestic availability.
The government had allowed 2 million tonnes (mt) of sugar for export in two tranches during the current season (October 2025-September 2026). However, industry experts said that a maximum of 0.5 mt could be shipped and helped the country to save 1.5 mt from going out when domestic production situation is not so supportive.
Sugar mills have informed the government that the total stock available with them as on February 28 could be 12.05 million tonnes (mt). On the other hand, domestic sugar production in 2025-26 season has reached 24.63 mt as of February 28, from 22.01 mt a year ago, according to data compiled by the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF), the industry body of cooperatives.
Little carryforward
Since the Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the industry body of private sector sugar producers, has pegged the country’s net sugar production at 29.29 mt for this year, there could be 4.66 mt more output (after excluding diversion towards ethanol) by September 30.
This additional likely production along with current stock may ensure an availability of 16.71 mt during March to September. When compared this with 16.1 mt of sugar allocated during March-September last year, there is very little amount of surplus available as carry forward.
“The notional stock may not be correct and seems on the lower side considering the domestic allocation of 11.05 mt and production of 24.63 mt in October-February, and carry over (from previous year) of 4.7 mt,” said industry veteran G K Sood. Still, the sugar situation is very tight even if there is no requirement of import.
Food Ministry indicators
However, the main issue will be whether net production will remain as per estimated 29.3 mt or lower and if lower, how much, Sood said, adding it could be around 28 mt.
The government has been allocating less sugar this year – 13.3 mt (October-March 2025-26) against 13.75 mt year-ago, down by 3 per cent. For March also, the domestic sales quota has been fixed at 2.25 mt against 2.3 mt a year ago.
According to Food Ministry data, sugar stock with mills in Maharashtra was estimated to be at 4.93 mt, in Uttar Pradesh at 3.48 mt and in Karnataka at 2.09 mt on February 28.
Meanwhile, NFCSF data show that Maharashtra’s sugar output reached at 9.52 mt in October-February of current season, which is 27 per cent higher from 7.49 mt a year ago, Uttar Pradesh 7.41 mt from 7.24 mt (up by 2 per cent) and Karnataka 4.41 mt from 3.83 mt (up 15 per cent).
It also shows that 248 sugar mills have closed crushing operation, whereas in the corresponding period year-ago, their number was 186, which also indicates lower probability of increased production from now on.
Published on March 2, 2026