Reduced area, weather vagaries and diseases such as blight are seen weighing on India’s cumin (jeera) output for the 2026 harvest season even as the trade remains divided over the crop size, with majority of the stakeholders expecting a drop in production. Uncertainty in demand amidst the ongoing war in the West Asia, which has impacted shipments to the region, are seen weighing on the sentiment in the domestic market as arrivals have begun in some producing areas.
Trade body Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) expects the 2026 output to be lower by about 5 per cent 5.13 lakh tonnes over previous year’s 5.38 lakh tonnes. In terms of bags of 55 kg each, FISS estimates the 2026 crop at 93.29 lakh bags over previous year’s 97.93 lakh bags.
Production in Gujarat is seen lower by 27 per cent at 1.83 lakh tonnes on an 18 per cent decline in acreage and 11 per cent drop in yields. However, output in Rajasthan is seen up by 15 per cent at 3.29 lakh tonnes on 4 per cent increase in area and 11 per cent rise in yields, according to FISS.
Ashwin Nayak, Founder Chairman, FISS said the crop is good, but a bit less than last year. Prices may be impacted if the ongoing war in the West Asia prolongs as the shipments have come to a halt. If the war ends early, there may not be a major impact on prices, he said.
Similarly, Dinesh Soni, Finance Director, Rajasthani Association of Spices, a trade body in the largest producing state, said the crop could be lower at around 80-82 lakh bags of 55 kg each as the above normal temperatures during the crop cycle is seen affecting the yields. Including a carry over of 20 lakh bags, the supply is comfortable at over 1 crore bags. Of this 60-65 lakh bags are likely to be consumed in the domestic market and the remaining for the exports, he said.
“Exports are likely to be good this year,” Soni, also managing director of Shree Shyam International, an exporter in Jodhpur said. He further said that the raw jeera prices have eased to around ₹180-190 levels per kg with the start of the arrivals of new crop.
Bhagirath Chaudhary, Founder Director, South Asia Biotechnology Centre (SABC) in Jodhpur, who works with cumin growers, said the production would be down by at least 10 per cent. Acreages were down as a section of farmers had shifted to rapeseed mustard due to good rains during the sowing period in the largest producing state. Another reason for decline in output, particularly in Rajasthan is that the winter was very short this year.
“The number of winter days which are required for the growth and grain formation, weight of the grain, where less than normal. Winter was short and the sudden spike in temperature now has had an impact and also now the blight has surfaced,” Chaudhary said.
Yogesh Mehta of SpicExim estimates jeera output to be down by around 20 per cent at 4.4 lakh tonnes as the crop is less in Gujarat, mainly in Saurashtra, while in Rajasthan it is good. Sentiment has been very bearish with the ongoing Iran-Israel war and shipments have stopped.
“I don’t think there will be any kind of affirmed interest in the near future, say for 2-3 weeks. Expect demand may start by Ist week of April,” Mehta, a veteran exporter said.
Spot prices, Mehta said are hovering around ₹4,200 per 20 kg and there may be pressure on prices, if the war continues. Buying interest from China is likely to come around mid-April, he added.
While major section of the stakeholders feel that crop could be lower, a section of the trade feels that the output could increase by 5-7 per cent this year on better yields in Rajasthan, the largest producing state. As per the crop market report presented at the recently held International Spice Conference 2026 at Kochi, India’s cumin output is expected to rise by 5-7 per cent to range between 5.3-5.4 lakh tonnes on higher yields. The 10-12 per cent decline in output in Gujarat at 2.26 lakh tonnes due to lower area will be offset by higher yields of 10-15 per cent in Rajasthan aided by increase in acreages resulting in higher output of 3.12 lakh tonnes.
India’s cumin exports during April-Dec 2025 were down 12 per cent at 1.56 lakh tonnes over corresponding previous year’s 1.78 lakh tonnes. Value of the shipments were down 29 per cent at $418 million during April-Dec 25 over corresponding last year’s $585 million.
Published on March 5, 2026