A temporary surge in oil prices to
$100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage
point, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday, as a widening
conflict in Iran chokes off vital Middle East oil and gas flows.
Under its baseline forecast, Goldman expects oil prices to
increase a bit further before moderating to $76 per barrel on
average in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 in the fourth
quarter.
In an upside scenario, it expects oil prices to rise to
about $100 per barrel, before normalizing over the course of
2026.
* Under its baseline forecast, Goldman estimates a “modest”
0.1 pp drag on global GDP growth and a 0.2 pp boost to global
headline inflation.
* A jump to $100 per barrel could fuel a 0.7 pp rise in
global headline inflation.
* Central banks have historically not reacted directly to
oil shocks, but tend to tighten policy modestly when inflation
is elevated, or price shocks are large, the brokerage said.
* Global monetary policy outlook will be mostly unaffected
under the baseline forecast.
* However, policy could turn more hawkish – potentially
through a delay in rate cuts in emerging markets – if oil prices
hit $100 per barrel or if higher costs pass through to consumer
prices at a higher-than-normal rate.
* Higher oil prices are expected to weigh on real incomes
and consumer spending, while oil exporters such as Canada and
several Latin American economies may benefit.
Published on March 5, 2026