Geopolitical jitters, crude surge kept lid on Markets; Sensex, Nifty open higher on diplomacy hopes


Equity benchmarks opened higher on Thursday morning, tracking positive global cues after the United States closed its markets on a firm note and South Korea’s Kospi rebounded sharply, even as elevated crude oil prices and continued foreign selling kept investor sentiment cautious.

The Sensex, which closed at ₹79,116.19 on Wednesday, opened at ₹79,530.48 and was trading at ₹79,501.32, up ₹385.13 or 0.49 per cent, as of 9.45 am. The Nifty 50, which had settled at ₹24,480.50 in the previous session, opened at ₹24,615.95 and was trading at ₹24,607.95, a gain of ₹127.45 or 0.52 per cent, at the same time.

The recovery follows a turbulent previous session in which the Nifty had fallen 385 points and the Sensex shed 1,123 points, with the metal sector bearing the sharpest losses, declining over 4 per cent. GIFT Nifty had earlier signalled the positive opening, trading around ₹24,666, up nearly 81.3 points.

A key trigger for the morning recovery was a news report suggesting Iran had signalled openness to diplomatic talks, along with US President Donald Trump’s pledge to stabilise oil markets. “US stocks closed higher on Wednesday after a news report indicating that Iran had signalled openness to diplomatic talks…easing investor anxiety over the escalating Middle East conflict,” said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities.

However, the geopolitical situation remained on edge after a US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, pushing crude oil prices higher on Thursday morning. May Brent oil futures were at $83.72 per barrel, up 1.47 per cent, while April WTI crude was at $77.08, up 3.24 per cent. On the domestic Multi Commodity Exchange, March crude oil futures were trading at ₹7,080, up 2.06 per cent from the previous close of ₹6,937, and April futures were at ₹6,988 against a previous close of ₹6,870, up 1.72 per cent.

“The Indian equity market continues to trade under the shadow of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are keeping crude oil prices elevated,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. “Higher energy prices are increasing pressure on India’s import bill and inflation outlook, thereby sustaining a cautious undertone in investor sentiment.”

On the institutional flows front, Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹8,752 crore on March 4, marking their fourth consecutive session of net selling. Domestic Institutional Investors, however, provided a counter-cushion, purchasing shares worth over ₹12,000 crore, extending their buying streak to six straight sessions. Separately, data cited by Livelong Wealth Founder Hariprasad K showed FII net outflows of ₹8,292.06 crore against DII purchases of ₹11,238.78 crore.

“Foreign institutional investors remained aggressive sellers in the cash market…while domestic institutional investors provided strong support,” said Hariprasad K. “…the recovery may remain tactical rather than structural in the near term.”

Among Nifty 50 top gainers, Coal India led with a rise of 2.83 per cent to ₹447.45, followed by ONGC at ₹284.35, up 2.67 per cent. Reliance Industries climbed 2.33 per cent to ₹1,376.40, while L&T gained 2.04 per cent to ₹3,961.90 and Sun Pharma added 1.97 per cent to trade at ₹1,785.00.

On the losing side, Max Healthcare fell 1.32 per cent to ₹1,039.80, while HCL Technologies dropped 0.98 per cent to ₹1,350.60. Adani Enterprises declined 0.74 per cent to ₹2,061.10, Asian Paints slipped 0.72 per cent to ₹2,268.70, and HDFC Life Insurance eased 0.72 per cent to ₹679.65.

On the sectoral front, energy and infrastructure names dominated gains while IT, healthcare, and financials faced selective pressure. The metal sector, which was the biggest sectoral loser in the previous session, was watched closely for any recovery.

India’s VIX, a measure of near-term volatility, stood near 21 after surging nearly 40 per cent over the prior two sessions, reflecting the spike in uncertainty. “Volatility is therefore expected to remain elevated, with markets likely to trade cautiously and within a defined range until clearer macro signals or any easing in geopolitical tensions emerges,” Ponmudi R added.

Gold traded around $5,150 per ounce near record levels, supported by Middle East tensions and a softer dollar. Bitcoin surged above $73,000. “Bitcoin surged above the $73,000 mark as investors increasingly position it as a form of ‘digital gold,’ rotating capital into it alongside traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver,” said Hariprasad K. South Korea’s Kospi rebounded more than 10 per cent after its worst-ever single-session crash of over 12 per cent the previous day.

“It is important to note that India outperformed yesterday with only a 1.5 per cent cut in the Nifty compared to the 12.1 per cent crash in South Korean Kospi,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “Perhaps emotional intelligence is more important now than financial acumen.”

Analysts advised investors to remain selective and disciplined. “Buy select stocks, which are fundamentally strong between the 24,300–24,000 range,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities, adding that fresh long positions should be considered only after a sustained breakout above the 25,000 mark on the Nifty.

Published on March 5, 2026



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