Chief Economic Adviser, V Anantha Nageswaran (file photo)
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ANI
With the change in the base year and methodology for calculating Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Friday revised upward the growth estimates for fiscal year 2026-27 by 20 basis points. At the same time, the fiscal deficit projection for the current fiscal year has been increased by 10 basis points.
The new base year for GDP calculation has now been revised to 2022-23 from 2011-12. The Statistics Ministry has also revised the real GDP growth rate for fiscal years 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.
In a media briefing, the Chief Economic Advisor said, “Economic Survey’s projection for FY27 has been revised upward to 7-7.4 per cent under the new series.” Earlier, it was 6.8-7.2 per cent. “The new estimates are with upward risk. This means the economy is more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 per cent rather than 7 per cent,” he said.
Further, he said that the economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by broad-based economic sectors. Favourable supply-side conditions, including robust rabi sowing, comfortable foodgrain stocks and easing global commodity prices, are expected to keep inflation low and stable.
“Fiscal consolidation is on track, with fiscal deficit estimated at 4.5 per cent for 2025-26, under the new series, without compromising on Capital Expenditure,” he said.
Earlier, the revised fiscal deficit was 4.4 per cent of GDP, but it has been revised upward due to the change in nominal growth. However, when asked about a revision in the Budget Estimates of the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year, which is pegged at 4.3 per cent of GDP, Nageswaran refused to comment. He highlighted that per capita nominal GDP growth could reach 9 per cent, noting that in recent years, per capita real income growth has averaged about 6.8 per cent.
GDP Growth Revision
Meanwhile, the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry (MoSPI) has revised the GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal year to 7.6 per cent from 7.4 per cent after the change in the base year and the addition of data from GST and the e-Vahan portal to better reflect economic activity. According to the new series, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the October-December quarter of 2025-26 grew by 7.8 per cent, up from 7.4 per cent in the year-ago period, mainly driven by the manufacturing and services sectors.
Further, GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised upwards to 8.4 per cent from 8.2 per cent in the old series (base: 2011-12), while for the first quarter, it has been lowered to 6.7 per cent from 7.8 per cent.
Anantha Nageswaran also said the momentum in the economy is good enough to deliver a growth rate of 7.3 per cent or more, so that FY26 growth estimates of 7.6 per cent are achieved.
“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹322.58 lakh crore in FY26, against the First Revised Estimate (FRE) of GDP for the year 2024-25 of ₹299.89 lakh crore. The growth rate in Real GDP during 2025-26 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to 7.1 per cent in 2024-25,” MoSPI said while releasing the new series.
Published on February 27, 2026