Sources said that the government will stop exports of petroleum products, particularly diesel, petrol and jet fuel if domestic supplies get stretched
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businessline
As a higher percentage of West Asian supplies in India’s current crude oil import mix exacerbates its sensitivity to even short-term disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Indian refiners can opt for Russian barrels that are currently floating in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea region.
businessline spoke with government officials, refiners and traders, who said Indian refiners can tap into Russian oil cargoes idling in the Arabian Sea.
Sources said that Indian public and private sector refiners are already procuring non-sanctioned Russian crude oil. However, if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is extended or the conflict intensifies with attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) region, domestic refiners will have to manage supplies from “anywhere possible”.
“In such a scenario, Russian crude at sea is among the best possible alternatives. Supplies from the US, South America and West Africa will take anywhere between 30 and 45 days, which can be an issue if this war extends further,” said a government source.
Coming full circle
Global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler also pointed out that in a scenario where West Asian imports become constrained or show signs of disruption, Indian refiners, potentially with policy backing, could pivot back to Russian cargoes relatively quickly.
Another important consideration is the availability of Russian crude. A significant number of Russian barrels are currently floating in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea region, partly due to reduced Indian imports over the past few months. These floating volumes effectively act as a near-term optional supply, explained Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling.
Moody’s Analytics on Monday said, “The conflict also complicates matters for India, which imports large amounts of West Asian oil and has agreed to wind down purchases of Russian oil as part of a trade deal with the US – a deal which now sits in a limbo after the US Supreme Court struck down US President Donald Trump’s country-based tariffs.”
Stop on exports?
The Indian government is reviewing the developments in West Asia, where the situation continues to intensify. On Monday, Oil Minister Hardeep S Puri reviewed India’s supply situation for crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and other petroleum products with senior officials from the Ministry and oil PSUs.
“We are continuously monitoring the evolving situation, and all necessary steps will be taken in order to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country,” the Oil Ministry said on X.
Sources said that the government will stop exports of petroleum products, particularly diesel, petrol and jet fuel if domestic supplies get stretched. It is also constantly in touch with the PSU oil marketing companies (OMCs) on the LPG supply situation, considering West Asia accounts for the majority of the imports of the key cooking fuel.
Claire Jungman, Vortexa’s Director of Maritime Risk & Intelligence, in a commentary said the market is likely to focus on retaliation risk rather than confirmed supply loss. The next directional move will depend on the scale and nature of Iran’s response and whether maritime flows remain uninterrupted.
Published on March 2, 2026