European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees rainfall scenario in March with parts of north, east and south India receiving rains, tapering along East Coast and over plains of North-West India.
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Winter precipitation so far during this year (January 1-February 23) has been deficient to the tune of -59 per cent for the country as a whole, with only South Peninsula (-24 per cent) recording marginal benefits, if any, among the four major geographical regions, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).
East and North-East India suffered worst with -92 per cent deficit, followed not too far by Central India (-81 per cent), after western disturbances with adequate moisture carry and depth made fewer calls along the international border in Gujarat, south-west Rajasthan, and Punjab.
Comparable better
North-West India was comparably better at -48 per cent, but contiguous East and North-East India suffered after the disturbances failed to penetrate the region. Bay of Bengal was less than enthusiastic with incremental moisture supply unlike counterpart north-east Arabian to west, aiding North-West India’s cause in part.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a short-term outlook for next week (February 26 to March 4), a feeble western disturbance or two may bring light to moderate rain/snow at isolated to scattered places for the hills of North-West India during some days of the week, clearly not sufficient to make any impression.
Below-normal rain
These may bring light rain/snow further east along its track at isolated places over Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. Overall, rainfall is likely to be below normal over most parts of the country during the week. Isolated light rain/snow are likely over Jammu-Kashmir; Himachal Pradesh; and Uttarakhand on Friday and Saturday as a feeble disturbance or two dock in, the IMD added.
On Tuesday, a prevailing odd low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal persisted; it may continue to move eastwards and weaken gradually by Wednesday. Fairly wide spread to wide spread light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Wednesday.
Rain, thunderstorms for east
To East and North-East, a prevailing disturbance as a trough lay anchored along Purnea and Kolkata, even as baby circulations watched over from north-east Assam andplains of West Bengal-north coastal Odisha. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds lashed parts of West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha; and with thunderstorms and lightning over east Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh. A similar weather will pan out for three days over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Assam and Meghalaya.
South too joins in
Upper air cyclonic circulations hovered over north-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra-Kutch, with a peer perched over south-east Arabian sea off south Kerala. A weather-making trough linked South Interior Karnataka to Marathwada. Together, these systems are dictating some disturbed weather for Peninsular India, including over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, and Lakshadweep. This may persist for another day over Kerala, Mahe, interior Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.
Better climes in March
A long-term outlook by Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the US as well as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (END) tend to paint a slightly different picture into March when the tide may shift over.
The CFC model suggests western disturbance activity may perk up again over North-West India from mid-March to early April. The activity could further intensify during March 25 to April 3, with likely beneficiaries being Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh; almost entire Rajasthan; and west Uttar Pradesh.
Unlike first week, East and North-East India may make marginal gains. The rain is likely to be heavier in the hills of North-West India (Jammu-Kashmir-Himachal Pradesh); East and North-East India; and in the South over coastal Karnataka and Kerala, and adjoining ghats region in south-west and south Tamil Nadu during this period.
Published on February 24, 2026