SBI’s estimates appear to be much higher than any other estimates. Rating agency ICRA has pegged Q3 growth at 7.2 per cent, moderating from 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter. Several other economists declined to offer estimates, citing uncertainty around the recalibrated dataset.
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With high frequency data showing resilient economic activities, India’s economy is likely to have grown at more than 8 per cent during the third quarter period that ended December 31, a research report by SBI stated on Tuesday. The report also highlighted that public sector banks have performed much better than major private sector banks during the nine-month period ending December 31.
Statistics Ministry will formally release the data on Friday with new base year of 2022-23. Previous base year was 2011-12.
According to SBI research report, high-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity in 3QFY26. Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season. Overall, “We expect Q3FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 8.1 per cent,” it said while adding that, given significant methodological changes, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision.
SBI’s estimates appear to be much higher than other estimates. Rating agency ICRA has pegged Q3 growth at 7.2 per cent, moderating from 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter. Several other economists declined to offer estimates, citing uncertainty around the recalibrated dataset. In December, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India had projected real GDP growth for the third quarter at 7 per cent.
Earlier, the first advance estimates pegged the growth rate for current fiscal at 7.4 per cent. Later Economic Survey said potential growth round to be around 7 per cent and it estimated growth rate for FY 27 between 6.8 and 7.2 per cent. Now, the second advance estimates for FY 26 along with previous two quarter numbers based on new base year to be released on Friday. Back series data of past 3 years will be also be released.
Meanwhile, SBI research report said that it tracked 50 leading indicators in consumption and demand, Agri, Industry, service and other indicators, which indicate significant jump in Q3 FY26 growth (as compared to Q4 FY25). The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 87 per cent in Q3, compared to 80% per cent in Q2. “GDP Growth as per SBI composite leading indicator (CLI) based on monthly data shows an upward momentum,” it said.
Performance of Banking Sector
Talking about banking sector, the report said that SCBs (Scheduled Commercial Banks) deposits growth remains muted compared to Credit growth. Fort the fortnight ended January 31, aggregate deposits grew by 12.5 per cent as compared to 10.3 per cent during corresponding period of last fiscal while credit grew by 14.6 per cent as against 11.4 per cent. With the rise in CD ratio, the gap between deposits and credit growth has increased but such gaps are nothing new to the banking system, the report added.
On the performance of banks, the report noted that while net profit of 12 public sector banks grew by 12.5 per cent to ₹1.46 lakh crore during the nine months period ending on December 31, 2025. At the same time, during same period, net profit of 8 major private sector banks grew around 3 per cent to over ₹1.30 lakh crore.
Published on February 24, 2026