Domestic markets are likely to open on a firm note, after the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s unilateral tariff imposition. Gift Nifty at 25,890 signals a gain of about 150-175 points at open, as marketmen cheer US court decision that will lower the tariff on Indian exports. But analysts expect volatility to continue amid fluid global situations, both on economic/trade front and geopolitical tension. F&O monthly expiry on Tuesday will also induce stock specific volatility.
Gift Nifty after hitting a high of 25,897 is currently ruling at 25,750. It has turned volatile in early deals as investors are still assessing the US Supreme Court impact and Trump administration’s counter moves.
The SCOTUS’s decision to strike down President Trump’s IEEPA, i.e. reciprocal tariffs, has already been met by a headline global tariff of 15 per cent under Section 122, while tariffs under other measures (Section 232, 201, etc) are unaffected. “This implies that the US has lost immediate tariff leverage as a means to agree to favourable trade deals globally, but the focus will shift to sectoral tariffs and alternatives. Nevertheless, we believe the fallout should be narrower and less damaging than in 2025. Most nations are likely to renegotiate their US trade deals, with growing political considerations (low approval ratings, midterms in Nov-26) also likely to restrain Trump going ahead. This is a positive development for India, in our view. With effective tariff rates at 11-13 per cent and no threat of Russian oil-linked higher tariffs, we expect a more favourable negotiation with the US,” said Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global Research.
Elara Securities said that the developments are primarily positive for India as India previously was supposed to pay 18 per cent under IEEPA but post the cancellation and imposition of Section 122, India pays 10 per cent on almost 60 per cent of the exports to the US. “Our calculation indicates that the policy implied effective tariff rate on India is 9.1 per cent versus 13.7 per cent following the first-week February 2026 trade deal, and peak rate of 32.7 per cent in CY25. At 9.1 per cent, India’s rate is at par and in some cases lower than Vietnam (9.3 per cent), Cambodia (11.8 per cent), Thailand (9.6 per cent) and Bangladesh (10 per cent). As we write, India’s 34.2 per cent of exports to the US are exempted from any kind of tariffs amounting to 0.7 per cent of nominal GDP,” the domestic brokerage said.
FPI behaviour
Analysts expect the foreign portfolio investors to return in a big way post the US Supreme Court ruling. Already they have slowed down their selling intensity and turned buyers in February following India-US interim deal. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said the trend of FPI buying witnessed in February, so far, is likely to continue, going forward. “A major factor driving the FPI inflows could be the improvement in corporate earnings. The Q3 FY 26 results indicate a clear pick up in corporate earnings with a 14.7 per cent earnings growth. This trend is likely to continue in the rest of FY26, too. As per the early estimates, FY27 earnings growth is likely to be around 15 per cent. This will make Indian valuations fair and attractive for FPIs to turn buyers in India,” he added.
While supportive global cues may contribute to a positive start to the week, the bullish trend depends on continued institutional support and improving momentum indicators, said Hariprasad K, Founder, Livelong Wealth.
Meanwhile global stocks are displaying contrasting trend with Japanese stocks down over one per cent while Korean stocks are up sharply.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian equity markets are poised for a steady-to-positive start, as reflected by firm trends in GIFT Nifty amid improving global risk sentiment after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s earlier reciprocal tariffs.
“Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to influence crude oil prices, while President Trump’s remarks about potentially exploring alternative legal routes to advance his tariff agenda reintroduce policy uncertainty. While near-term sentiment has improved, markets may remain vulnerable to intermittent bouts of volatility as geopolitical and trade developments evolve.”
Published on February 23, 2026